parameter Estimates
- \(R0\), the reproductive number or average number of new infections generated by an infected person in a completely susceptible population
- \(r\), the proportion of illnesses that are observed
- \(Frac_{R0}\), the reduction in the initial R0 due to social distancing
- \(\alpha\), the probability of hospitalization given illness
- \(\kappa\), the probability of ICU care necessary given hospitalization
- \(p_v\), the probability of ventilation given ICU care
- \(\delta\), the probability of death given ICU care
Demonstrating Model Fit Against Data
- Detected illnesses, cumulative = Idetectcum
- Hospitalizations, cumulative = Htotcum
- Deaths, cumulative = D
- Ventilation, cumulative = V
- Hospitalization, daily new incidence = H_new
- Deaths, daily new incidence = D_new
Peak hospitalization, ICU, ventilation vs. capacity
Sensitivity of model projections to parameter estimates
